By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Some say it is a chaotic and frustrating time to be an investor. Rising employment and wages and resilient consumer spending are offset by rising inflation driven mostly by volatile commodity markets and supply chain disruptions. Higher corporate earnings estimates are being met by declining price-earnings multiples. And the Russia-Ukraine...
The Fed Funds futures market is pricing in roughly 10 quarter-point rate hikes this year. The benchmark 10-year yield was up +56 basis points for April. 2022 so far has seen the worst total return start for the 10-year Treasury (or proxies) since 1788, just before George Washington’s presidency. It appears that much of this tightening cycle has already been priced into the bond market – even...
Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals. Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...
By: Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...
February was a month of two halves. Hawkish central banks, high inflation and a strong U.S. jobs report dominated the first half of the month. However, the Russia/Ukraine situation has taken over the narrative for the second half of the month and has carried over into March. Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine. Here are 3 things you need to know: Real gross domestic product...
Fed predictions, Omicron, geopolitical tensions, oh my! This year’s stock market weakness culminated with some of the sharpest intraday swings since the start of the pandemic. However, the stock market is forward looking, and investors may have already priced in this information. Here are 3 things you need to know: A sell-off among leading tech stocks contributed to a 9% decline for the Nasdaq...
Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...
Many equity markets saw their best month of the year (including the S&P 500), whilst commodities led the way. Here are 3 things you need to know: Real GDP growth slowed substantially in the 3rd quarter to a 2.0% annual rate, after 6.5% growth in the first half of the year. Recent data points to a pick-up of economic momentum for the 4th quarter.Core CPI inflation for September rose to 4.04%....
By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting last week finally put some meat on the bone by concluding they would start the tapering of their $120 billion monthly purchases of government securities. Though they were inexact as to the precise timing, it appears the program will begin in November and finish up by mid-2022. But there were a couple...
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Market By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The July minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) latest policy meeting were released on August 18th to the hue and cry of Wall Street pundits about the Fed making plans to pull back the pace of their monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. The ongoing assumption has been...
Inflation has now well surpassed the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) target, as the core PCE accelerated to +3.5% year-over-year. The FOMC recognizes the need to reduce accommodation in the quarters ahead and we believe it will start tapering the pace of its purchases in December. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss the economy or markets more in-depth do not hesitate to give...
Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for June. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee...
By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager On Wednesday, June 23, 2021, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) latest policy meeting held a week earlier were released along with individual members’ (anonymous) estimates of where the Federal funds rate will be through 2024. The policy setting group (the Federal Open Market Committee) is comprised of 18 members including Chairman...
Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for May. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee...
BFSG’s Senior Portfolio Manager, Michael Allbee, CFP® was invited to be a guest speaker for the “It’s Your Money!” workshop series put on by not-for-profit Financial & Estate Literacy. These workshops educate seniors to take control of their financial, estate, and charitable giving decisions. For this session, Mike discusses stock terminology, the importance of diversification, market...
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