#OASDI

With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern.¹ Social Security isn’t in danger of going broke — it’s financed primarily through payroll taxes — but its financial health is declining, and benefits may eventually be reduced unless Congress acts.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress that assesses the financial health and outlook of this program. The most recent report, released on June 2, 2022, shows that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected in last year’s report — a bit of good news this year.

Overall, the news is mixed for Social Security

The Social Security program consists of two programs, each with its own financial account (trust fund) that holds the payroll taxes that are collected to pay Social Security benefits. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program. Other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation) is also deposited in these accounts.

Money that’s not needed in the current year to pay benefits and administrative costs is invested (by law) in special government-guaranteed Treasury bonds that earn interest. Over time, the Social Security Trust Funds have built up reserves that can be used to cover benefit obligations if payroll tax income is insufficient to pay full benefits, and these reserves are now being drawn down. Due to the aging population and other demographic factors, contributions from workers are no longer enough to fund current benefits.

In the latest report, the Trustees estimate that Social Security will have funds to pay full retirement and survivor benefits until 2034, one year later than in last year’s report. At that point, reserves will be used up, and payroll tax revenue alone would be enough to pay only 77% of scheduled OASI benefits, declining to 72% through 2096, the end of the 75-year, long-range projection period.

The Disability Insurance Trust Fund is projected to be much healthier over the long term than last year’s report predicted. The Trustees now estimate that it will be able to pay full benefits through the end of 2096.  Last year’s report projected that it would be able to pay scheduled benefits only until 2057. Applications for disability benefits have been declining substantially since 2010, and the number of workers receiving disability benefits has been falling since 2014, a trend that continues to affect the long-term outlook.

According to the Trustees report, the combined reserves (OASDI) will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2035, one year later than in last year’s report. After that, payroll tax revenue alone should be sufficient to pay 80% of scheduled benefits, declining to 74% by 2096. OASDI projections are hypothetical, because the OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate, and generally one program’s taxes and reserves cannot be used to fund the other program. However, this could be changed by Congress, and combining these trust funds in the report is a way to illustrate the financial outlook for Social Security as a whole.

All projections are based on current conditions and best estimates of likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions, and the Trustees acknowledge that the course of the pandemic and future events may affect Social Security’s financial status.

Many options for improving the health of Social Security

The last 10 Trustees Reports have projected that the combined OASDI reserves will become depleted between 2033 and 2035. The Trustees continue to urge Congress to address the financial challenges facing these programs so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually, lessening the impact on the public.  Many options have been proposed, including the ones below. Combining some of these may help soften the impact of any one solution.

• Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate (currently 12.4%). Half is paid by the employee and half by the employer (self-employed individuals pay the full 12.4%). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase of 3.24% to 15.64% would be needed to cover the long-range revenue shortfall.
• Raising or eliminating the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($147,000 in 2022).
• Raising the full retirement age beyond the currently scheduled age of 67 (for anyone born in 1960 or later).
• Raising the early retirement age beyond the current age of 62.
• Reducing future benefits. To address the long-term revenue shortfall, scheduled benefits would have to be immediately and permanently reduced by about 20.3% for all current and future beneficiaries, or by about 24.1% if reductions were applied only to those who initially become eligible for benefits in 2022 or later.
• Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
• Calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits differently.

A comprehensive list of potential solutions can be found at here.

Sources:

1) Social Security Administration, 2022

Prepared by Broadridge Advisor Solutions. Edited by BFSG. Copyright 2022.

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

Myths and misstatements of fact frequently circulate on the Internet, in email and on websites, and are repeated in endless loops of misinformation. One common set of such misinformation involves Social Security and its benefits. Given Social Security’s importance, concerns about its current and future state are understandable and widespread. We will spend some time debunking some common myths.

Myth: Social Security will provide most of the income you need in retirement.

Fact: It’s likely that Social Security will provide a smaller portion of retirement income than you expect.

There’s no doubt about it — Social Security is an important source of retirement income for most Americans. According to the Social Security Administration (SSA), nearly nine out of ten individuals age 65 and older receive Social Security benefits.¹

But it may be unwise to rely too heavily on Social Security, because to keep the system solvent, some changes will have to be made to it. The younger and wealthier you are, the more likely these changes will affect you. But whether retirement is years away or just around the corner, keep in mind that Social Security was never meant to be the sole source of income for retirees. As President Dwight D. Eisenhower said, “The system is not intended as a substitute for private savings, pension plans, and insurance protection. It is, rather, intended as the foundation upon which these other forms of protection can be soundly built.”

No matter what the future holds for Social Security, focus on saving as much for retirement as possible. When combined with your future Social Security benefits, your retirement savings and pension benefits can help ensure that you’ll have enough income to see you through retirement.

Myth: If you earn money after you retire, you’ll lose your Social Security benefit.

Fact: Money you earn after you retire will only affect your Social Security benefit if you’re under full retirement age.

Once you reach full retirement age, you can earn as much as you want without affecting your Social Security retirement benefit. But if you’re under full retirement age, any income that you earn may affect the amount of benefit you receive.

• If you’re under full retirement age, $1 in benefits will be withheld for every $2 you earn above a certain annual limit. For 2022, that limit is $19,560.
• In the year you reach full retirement age, $1 in benefits will be withheld for every $3 you earn above a certain annual limit until the month you reach full retirement age. If you reach full retirement age in 2022, that limit is $51,960.

Even if your monthly benefit is reduced in the short term due to your earnings, you’ll receive a higher monthly benefit later. That’s because the SSA recalculates your benefit when you reach full retirement age and omits the months in which your benefit was reduced.

What is Your Full Retirement Age?

*If you were born on January 1 of any year, refer to the previous year to determine your full retirement age.

Myth: Social Security is only a retirement program.

Fact: Social Security also offers disability and survivor benefits.

With all the focus on retirement benefits, it’s easy to overlook the fact that Social Security also offers protection against long-term disability. And when you receive retirement or disability benefits, your family members may be eligible to receive benefits, too.

Another valuable source of support for your family is Social Security survivor insurance. If you were to die, certain members of your family, including your spouse, children, and dependent parents, may be eligible for monthly survivor benefits that can help replace lost income.

For specific information about the benefits, you and your family members may receive, visit the Social Security Administration website at ssa.gov, or call 800-772-1213 if you have questions.

Myth: Social Security benefits are not taxable.

Fact: You may have to pay taxes on your Social Security benefits if you have other income.

If the only income you had during the year was Social Security income, then your benefit generally isn’t taxable. But if you earned income during the year (either from a job or from self-employment) or had substantial investment income, then you might have to pay federal income tax on a portion of your benefit. Up to 85% of your benefit may be taxable, depending on your tax filing status (e.g., single, married filing jointly) and the total amount of income you have.

For more information on this subject, see IRS Publication 915, Social Security and Equivalent Railroad Retirement Benefits.

Myth: Social Security is going bankrupt soon.

Fact: Social Security is facing significant financial challenges but is not going bankrupt.

Social Security is largely a pay-as-you-go system with today’s workers (and employers) paying for today’s retirees through the collection of payroll (FICA) taxes. These taxes and other income are deposited in Social Security trust funds and benefits are paid from them.

According to the SSA, due to demographic factors, Social Security is already paying out more money than it takes in. However, by drawing on the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund, the SSA estimates that Social Security should be able to pay 100% of scheduled benefits until fund reserves are depleted in 2033. Once the trust fund reserves are depleted, payroll tax revenue alone should still be sufficient to pay about 76% of scheduled benefits. So, at that time, if no changes are made, beneficiaries may receive a benefit that is about 24% less than expected.²

That’s not good news, but Congress still has time to make changes to strengthen the program and address projected shortfalls. Until then, consider various income scenarios when planning for retirement.

Sources:

1) Social Security Administration, Social Security Basic Facts, 2021

2) 2021 OASDI Trustees Report

Prepared by Broadridge Advisor Solutions. Edited by BFSG. Copyright 2022.

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.