#marketvolatility

Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals.  Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11^th and although Wall Street analysts have recently scaled back their expectations for quarterly earnings, they’ve been raising their forecasts for the rest of the year, according to FactSet.  Earnings typically are the key engine of equity returns over the long run.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. U.S. inflation data showed price increases hovering near 40-year highs. The report showed a further rotation back to services spending as the economy, and away from goods spending.
2. Jobs data showed a robust labor market with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.6% from 3.8%, while the labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.4%.
3. The 1^st quarter was one of the worst quarters for 10-year Treasury bonds since the early 1980’s. The Treasury yield curve inverted (higher yields for shorter-term bonds vs. longer-term bonds) between the 10-year and 2-year notes and 30-year and 5-year bonds, further stoking concerns of an impending recession.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

By:  Michael Allbee, CFP®, Senior Portfolio Manager

“What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach.”

– Captain (Strother Martin) from the movie “Cool Hand Luke”

Barron’s recently interviewed hedge fund giant Ray Dalio, who manages Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with around $150 billion in assets. During the interview, he discussed how social division and polarization could lead to some form of domestic civil war and that we are at a critical juncture.

Is Mr. Dalio out of left field? Could we have a constitutional crisis in 2024 similar to the presidential election of 1876? The election of 1876 and the present day have many similarities, with the relentless anger and even hatred building up in our political system. The history of ancient Greece showed that, in a democracy, emotion dominates reason to a greater extent than in any other political system.¹

Our democracy is fragile and can only survive if most citizens feel the system is fair and legitimate.² “Good words and spirit aren’t enough,” Dalio said. “People will have to agree on both how to grow the pie and how to divide it well. That will require revolutionary change.” I don’t know about “revolutionary change”, but bipartisan government and legislation are absolutely essential for the health of our democracy. With an evenly divided Senate and a near-even split in the House, lawmakers have an unprecedented opportunity to truly come together with a plan to restore truth and respect in governance, putting the nation’s business ahead of partisan loyalties. “History bears the scars of our civil wars”, but history also justifies such moderate hopes.  “I don’t need your civil war”!³

As we enter mid-year elections, there will be lots of headlines but that should not sway you from following the financial plan we created for you. Of course, elections hold great importance in upholding the U.S. tradition of democratic, representative government. However, their impact on market returns has historically proven to be negligible.⁴

How do we counter today’s political climate? We focus on the things that we can control. At least when it comes to investing, we focus on diversification, strive to position portfolios to generate stable returns after inflation and taxes, and disciplined rebalancing in times of market volatility to capitalize opportunistically on dislocations. Even though bonds and other “safe haven” assets (i.e., gold, reserve currencies, some alternatives) don’t provide much income today and may face near-term headwinds with rising interest rates, these assets remain a critical component of a diversified portfolio.

References:

1. Hart, Liddell B.H. Why Don’t We Learn from History? Sophron, 1944.
2. Marks, Howard. The Winds of Change. Oaktree Capital Management, L.P, 2021.
3. Guns N’ Roses. “Civil War”. Use Your Illusion II. Universal Music Group, 1991.
4. Source: Vanguard, based on data from Global Financial Data as of December 31, 2019. Data represents the 60% GFD US-100 Index and 40% GFD US Bond Index, as calculated by historical data provider Global Financial Data.

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please see important disclosure information here.