#marketupdate

There was a big repricing of inflation expectations over February, as the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an uptick in inflation and the January Jobs report was much stronger than expected. Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. 2yr U.S. inflation breakevens were up +85 basis points (bps) to 3.18%, having ended January at just 2.33%. This was the second largest monthly move higher since February 2009 after the +87bps move in October last year. (Source: Deutsche Bank, FRED Economic Data)
2. February saw the 2-year Treasury yield increase more than +70bps and the 10-year Treasury yield increase more than +50bps. Yields move inversely to prices.
3. Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Bond Index had its worst February since inception in 1990. (Source: Bloomberg Finance LP)

Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet.

Indices:

• The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
• The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

Overall, January continued the strong bounce back seen for most global assets since October even if the performance seen in the first half of the month wasn’t quite matched in the second half. It was still the best January in several years for many assets. Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in above expectations at 2.9%. The increase primarily reflected increases in inventory investment and consumer spending. Real GDP increased 2.1% in 2022.
2. U.S. inflation data released in January showed the rates of headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in December to 6.5% and 5.7%, respectively.
3. The following are selected examples of it being the best January since the year in brackets: US Investment Grade Corp Bond Index (1975), European Banks (best January since index started in 1987), the Italian FTSE MIB Index (1998), NASDAQ (2001), Copper (2003), the Shanghai Comp Index (2009), the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (2012), the Euro High Yield Index (2012), the Stoxx Europe 600 stock index (2015), US Treasuries (2015), Gold (2015), and the Germany DAX stock index (2015). (Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP)

Sources:

Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet.

Indices:

• The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
• The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

2022 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an ‘Annus Horribilis’. May the New Year 2023 be more prosperous.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The S&P 500 index was off (-19.4%), the worst yearly decline since 2008.
2. Long-term treasuries were down (-30%) as interest rates rose the most since 1980.
3. Cash has the lowest real yields since 1830, other than during the Civil War, WWI, and WWII. (Source: FRB, Robert Shiller)

Sources:

Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet.

Indices:

• The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
• The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

Christmas came early this year for the markets. The idea that falling inflation could mean that the end to the rate hiking cycle is not far off gave both stocks and bonds a boost.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The October consumer price index (CPI) showed prices rose 7.7% from a year ago and 0.4% from the prior month, according to the Labor Department, both below expectations. Prices of goods and autos fell, as supply chain disruptions continued to ease. Food, services, and shelter inflation were stickier.
2. Long-term U.S. Treasuries returned +7% in November, their biggest monthly gain since August 2019. Global bonds as measured by the Global Aggregate Bond index, rebounded in November (+4.7%), adding a record $2.8 trillion in market value.
3. Not all assets were in recovery mode in November. The US Dollar Index saw its worst monthly performance in over a decade (-5%). Bitcoin fell (-16%) as investors withdrew $20 billion from crypto funds in November.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet; Goldman Sachs Asset Management.; John Hancock Investment Management.
2. Indices:
   • The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

Although this year has felt spooky, the U.S. stock market rallied in October after enduring several straight months of losses, leading to optimism that the end of the bear market may be in sight.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The S&P 500 ended the month up 8%. Ten of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose during the month, with energy stocks leading the way higher.
2. Gilts (a UK Government liability in sterling) led the way in fixed income thanks to the fiscal U-turn and a new Prime Minister after a disastrous decline under former PM Liz Truss. But they’re still down -35% year-to-date (in US Dollar terms).
3. U.S. WTI Oil had a good month as the OPEC+ group cut production, and it’s far and away the best year-to-date performer (+15%).

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov); Bloomberg; FactSet; Deutsche Bank.
2. Indices:
   • The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.