#investments

How much “noise” is the media pushing out to us every day? And even more important, how often does this seemingly important “breaking news” that might impact markets today, actually have a long-lasting impact a long-term results? Find out more here and learn about recency bias, just one of the many biases and habits that lead to poor investing decisions.

BFSG Shorts: Recency Bias

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

From the end of the Global Financial Crisis in 2009 until now, the combined balance sheets of the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan grew from approximately $5.3 trillion to over $23.7 trillion.(1) The markets were awash in liquidity over the past decade, and the rising tide lifted virtually all financial assets. Central banks around the world are on track to hike rates more than 250 times this year while shrinking their balance sheets.(2) The FOMC post-meeting statement announced that balance sheet runoff will start on June 1. As Warren Buffett famously said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

Here are 3 things you need to know (3):

1. The S&P 500 ended May with a gain of 0.01%, despite wild swings, a brief bear market (a drop of 20%), disappointing economic data, and pessimistic forecasts.
2. The April core PCE price index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure) declined to 4.91% year-over-year. Core inflation was again boosted by rapid shelter inflation—which has run at the highest level since 1990 over the last year.
3. The FOMC raised the funds rate target range by 0.5pp to 0.75%-1.0%, as widely expected. The May FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus for Fed Chairman Powell’s baseline of 50bp hikes at both the June and July meetings.

Sources:

1. Source: Blackstone Investment Strategy, national sources and Macrobond, as of 4/30/2022.
2. Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, as of 5/5/2022.

3. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
4. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

BFSG’s CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals, Michael Allbee, CFP® and Paul Horn, CFP®, CPWA®, were invited to be guest speakers for the “It’s Your Money!” workshop series. For the “Investment World” session, Mike and Paul focused on how the investment world gets compensated. Learn the differences between brokers versus advisors, what does the word “fiduciary” mean, how to find an advisor, and most importantly how certain products are sold, and the way brokers/dealers are paid. Watch the replay by clicking here.

The “It’s Your Money!” workshop series is hosted by Peter Kote for his not-for-profit Financial & Estate Literacy. These workshops educate seniors to take control of their #financial, #estate, and #charitablegiving decisions. You can check out the entire spring series here.

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.
2. President Biden renominated Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve for four more years and Dr. Brainard as Vice chair. After the nominations, President Biden said, “I’m confident that Chair Powell and Dr. Brainard’s focus on keeping inflation low, prices stable, and delivering full employment will make our economy stronger than ever before.”
3. Oil prices (WTI) suffered its worst monthly decline since March 2020 on the heels of the emergence of the Omicron covid variant and the U.S. tapping its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please see important disclosure information here.

Many equity markets saw their best month of the year (including the S&P 500), whilst commodities led the way. Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. Real GDP growth slowed substantially in the 3^rd quarter to a 2.0% annual rate, after 6.5% growth in the first half of the year. Recent data points to a pick-up of economic momentum for the 4^th quarter.
2. Core CPI inflation for September rose to 4.04%. Core inflation was boosted by rapid shelter inflation— which ran at the highest level since the housing bubble.
3. Less growth, more inflation = ☹. Short-term rate markets are pulling forward expectations for when and how quickly major central banks will start to lift interest rates from zero.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s web site or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please see important disclosure information here.