By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The first link in the supply chain, the number of ships backed up in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, is in sharp decline as the accompanying chart from BCA shows. Source: BCA Research The harder part is relieving the structural scarcity of trucks, drivers, and logistics (i.e., port workers, warehouse capacity) to decompress...
BFSG Blog
Financial Resources & News
What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes
By: Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...
Ignore the Noise – Focus on What You Can Control
By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Let’s cut through the ongoing cross currents of Wall Street and other pundits’ chatter about supply chains, the pandemic, the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”), and market volatility to concentrate on the proven drivers of stock market investing. History attests to the maxim that if you don’t expect a recession nearby, stay invested in stocks. That...
SPACs Go from Red Hot to Ice Cold
By: Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst What a difference a year makes. Last spring, you couldn’t avoid the topic SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) in any financial publication you laid your eyes on. Now the SPAC conversation is still prevalent, but for opposite reasons. Investor sentiment has dissipated dramatically in recent months as the prospect of higher inflation...
Monthly Market Update (December): 3 Things You Need to Know
Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...
Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know
November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head. Here are 3 things you need to know: The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.President...
Is the Real Unemployment Rate 2.3%?
Source: Michael Liebowitz, Realinvestmentadvice.com By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Is the real unemployment rate 2.3%? If you back out people who quit voluntarily to look for better paying jobs, the answer is yes. Quitters are still “employed”. They are in transition to other employment opportunities and should be considered as part of the labor force. If you adjust...
Monthly Market Update: 3 Things You Need to Know
September marked a much weaker month for financial markets. Here are 3 things you need to know: Inflation moderated across a few major categories that have been the most impacted by supply chain shortages and pent-up consumer demand, such as used cars, airlines and hotels. However, energy prices surged during the month with WTI oil increasing +9.5% for the month.Expiring extended federal...
August Monthly Economic Summary
Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for August. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market...
Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Speech
By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The stock market (1) has reacted bullishly today to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. It was his first public admission of where he stood on tapering that pushed stocks higher: “At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of...
Monthly Economic Summary (July)
Inflation has now well surpassed the Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) target, as the core PCE accelerated to +3.5% year-over-year. The FOMC recognizes the need to reduce accommodation in the quarters ahead and we believe it will start tapering the pace of its purchases in December. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss the economy or markets more in-depth do not hesitate to give...
Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon
By: Michael Allbee, CFP® Principal| Senior Portfolio Manager The past few months saw some eye-popping inflation readings after subdued inflation prints last year due to COVID. The Core Consumer Price Index (“CPI”), which excludes the volatile energy and food categories, rose 0.9% in June after increasing 0.7% in May and 0.9% in April, bringing the year-over-year reading to 4.5%. Headline...
Monthly Economic Summary (June 2021)
Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for June. As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee...
Why the Markets Ignored the Fed
By: Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager On Wednesday, June 23, 2021, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) latest policy meeting held a week earlier were released along with individual members’ (anonymous) estimates of where the Federal funds rate will be through 2024. The policy setting group (the Federal Open Market Committee) is comprised of 18 members including Chairman...
“It’s Your Money” Workshop Series
BFSG’s Senior Portfolio Manager, Michael Allbee, CFP® and Senior Financial Planner, Paul Horn, CFP®, CPWA®, were invited to be guest speakers for the “It’s Your Money!” workshop series put on by Peter Kote for his not-for-profit Financial & Estate Literacy. These workshops educate seniors to take control of their financial, estate, and charitable giving decisions. You can check out the...
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