BFSG Blog

Financial Resources & News

Monthly Market Update (March): 3 Things You Need to Know

Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals.  Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...

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The Supply Chain, the Fed, and Lingering Inflation

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The first link in the supply chain, the number of ships backed up in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, is in sharp decline as the accompanying chart from BCA shows. Source: BCA Research The harder part is relieving the structural scarcity of trucks, drivers, and logistics (i.e., port workers, warehouse capacity) to decompress...

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What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes

By:  Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...

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Monthly Market Update (November): 3 Things You Need to Know

November returns would have looked very different had the month ended at Thanksgiving, but the last three days turned global markets on a head. Here are 3 things you need to know: The gradual removal of pandemic-era monetary policy accommodation in the United States has begun with the Federal Reserve’s announcement on November 3 that it would start to scale back its bond-buying program.President...

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Is the Real Unemployment Rate 2.3%?

Source: Michael Liebowitz, Realinvestmentadvice.com By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Is the real unemployment rate 2.3%? If you back out people who quit voluntarily to look for better paying jobs, the answer is yes. Quitters are still “employed”. They are in transition to other employment opportunities and should be considered as part of the labor force. If you adjust...

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Monthly Market Update: 3 Things You Need to Know

September marked a much weaker month for financial markets. Here are 3 things you need to know: Inflation moderated across a few major categories that have been the most impacted by supply chain shortages and pent-up consumer demand, such as used cars, airlines and hotels. However, energy prices surged during the month with WTI oil increasing +9.5% for the month.Expiring extended federal...

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The Bond Bears are Waking Up from Their Deep Slumber

By:  Steven L. Yamshon, Ph.D., Managing Principal The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) bank knows that there is too much liquidity in the system but has mixed feelings about reducing it. My sense is that the Fed will need to see that the following five factors are in place before they do anything: An unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 3.8%;Prime-age (25-54) labor force participation close to...

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Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Speech

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The stock market (1) has reacted bullishly today to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. It was his first public admission of where he stood on tapering that pushed stocks higher: “At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of...

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The Bond Vigilantes Sing Don’t Cry for Me Argentina

By:  Steven L. Yamshon, Ph.D., Managing Principal James Carville, President Clinton’s political consultant said at the time when Clinton was President, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."  Back in the early...

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Monthly Economic Summary (June 2021)

Last month was an interesting month for the markets and below is the economic summary for June.  As always, if you have any questions or want to discuss more in-depth do not hesitate to give us a call! Sources: Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee...

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The Inflation Dog Didn’t Hunt in April

CPI Treemap: Area Represents Weight in Index, Color Represents % Change Year-Over-Year (Source: Payden&Rygel) By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Benefit Financial Services Group The past two weeks saw some eye-popping inflation readings. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 4.2% year-over-year (YoY), but a surprisingly large 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) gain. The producer price index...

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