#geopolitics

February was a month of two halves. Hawkish central banks, high inflation and a strong U.S. jobs report dominated the first half of the month. However, the Russia/Ukraine situation has taken over the narrative for the second half of the month and has carried over into March. Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. Real gross domestic product (GDP) for all of 2021 grew by 5.7%, compared with a contraction of 3.4% in 2020, when the pandemic set in.
2. The growth outlook remains strong even after factoring in the expected pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the labor market providing ample evidence of strength.
3. The Consumer Price Index in the United States rose by 7.5% in January compared with January 2021, the largest such increase in 40 years. Inflation should peak in the first half of 2022.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

Fed predictions, Omicron, geopolitical tensions, oh my! This year’s stock market weakness culminated with some of the sharpest intraday swings since the start of the pandemic. However, the stock market is forward looking, and investors may have already priced in this information.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. A sell-off among leading tech stocks contributed to a 9% decline for the Nasdaq composite, marking the index’s largest monthly decline since 2008. Over 75% of Nasdaq stocks were down 50% or more from their 52-week high at one point during the month.
2. The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) left the funds rate target range unchanged at 0–0.25% but is preparing for a March rate hike and suggested it could front-load rate hikes even more than previously indicated. The Fed Funds Futures imply 5 full rate hikes this year.
3. The Russia-Ukraine crisis heated up as the U.S. and its NATO allies are bolstering troops in Eastern Europe and crafting harsh sanctions.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.