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Financial Resources & News

Monthly Market Update (March): 3 Things You Need to Know

Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals.  Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...

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The Supply Chain, the Fed, and Lingering Inflation

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The first link in the supply chain, the number of ships backed up in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors, is in sharp decline as the accompanying chart from BCA shows. Source: BCA Research The harder part is relieving the structural scarcity of trucks, drivers, and logistics (i.e., port workers, warehouse capacity) to decompress...

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Monthly Market Update (January): 3 Things You Need to Know

Fed predictions, Omicron, geopolitical tensions, oh my! This year’s stock market weakness culminated with some of the sharpest intraday swings since the start of the pandemic. However, the stock market is forward looking, and investors may have already priced in this information. Here are 3 things you need to know: A sell-off among leading tech stocks contributed to a 9% decline for the Nasdaq...

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Is the Real Unemployment Rate 2.3%?

Source: Michael Liebowitz, Realinvestmentadvice.com By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Is the real unemployment rate 2.3%? If you back out people who quit voluntarily to look for better paying jobs, the answer is yes. Quitters are still “employed”. They are in transition to other employment opportunities and should be considered as part of the labor force. If you adjust...

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The Bond Bears are Waking Up from Their Deep Slumber

By:  Steven L. Yamshon, Ph.D., Managing Principal The Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) bank knows that there is too much liquidity in the system but has mixed feelings about reducing it. My sense is that the Fed will need to see that the following five factors are in place before they do anything: An unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 3.8%;Prime-age (25-54) labor force participation close to...

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An Energy Price Rise Two-Fer Today

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager A series of margin calls and OPEC’s reiterating its ongoing 400,00 barrels/ per day increase in output lit a further surge in natural gas and oil today. Hedge funds and large traders have been making bets that natural gas prices in the U.S. would rise faster than in Europe. So, they shorted natural gas futures in Europe (via a futures exchange...

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The Federal Reserve Taper Begins

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting last week finally put some meat on the bone by concluding they would start the tapering of their $120 billion monthly purchases of government securities. Though they were inexact as to the precise timing, it appears the program will begin in November and finish up by mid-2022. But there were a couple...

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Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Speech

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The stock market (1) has reacted bullishly today to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY. It was his first public admission of where he stood on tapering that pushed stocks higher: “At the FOMC’s recent July meeting, I was of...

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The Economy is Tapering Ahead of the Fed

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Market By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The July minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed”) latest policy meeting were released on August 18th to the hue and cry of Wall Street pundits about the Fed making plans to pull back the pace of their monthly bond purchases before the end of the year. The ongoing assumption has been...

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