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What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes

By:  Robert Verdugo, CMFC®, APMA®, Financial Analyst As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is poised to start raising rates today, and with the S&P 500 (1) down over 10% off its highs, is it time to declare the bull market dead? History would say no – in fact, a resounding no. Jess Menton’s article in Bloomberg, titled “What Happens to Stocks When the Fed Hikes: A Historical Guide”, does a...

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The New Vigilantes

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The markets are all aflutter as the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) plans to reduce and then eliminate their purchases of government securities which are supposed to follow their first increase in the Fed Funds rate in March. That is estimated to be a 25-basis point (maybe 50-basis point) rise. If you believe the latest estimates of the members of...

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The Fed & Inflation

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager Source: Realinvestmentadvice.com Has the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) caused the burst in inflation over the past year? Not Likely. While the Fed can influence money supply (M1) growth, they can’t control how fast it is spent. Money velocity measures how many times a dollar of money supply circulates. If M1 growth rises but it is saved (a...

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The November Employment Head Fake

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The print of the monthly payroll employment number brings Wall Street cheers or anguish, filling the market airwaves with new prognostications of economic growth or stagnation. The November release was a clear example of such harrumphing. According to the Labor Department, employment rose by just 210,000, far below the consensus of a...

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The Federal Reserve Taper Begins

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager The Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting last week finally put some meat on the bone by concluding they would start the tapering of their $120 billion monthly purchases of government securities. Though they were inexact as to the precise timing, it appears the program will begin in November and finish up by mid-2022. But there were a couple...

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Why the Markets Ignored the Fed

By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Senior Portfolio Manager On Wednesday, June 23, 2021, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) latest policy meeting held a week earlier were released along with individual members’ (anonymous) estimates of where the Federal funds rate will be through 2024. The policy setting group (the Federal Open Market Committee) is comprised of 18 members including Chairman...

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The Inflation Dog Didn’t Hunt in April

CPI Treemap: Area Represents Weight in Index, Color Represents % Change Year-Over-Year (Source: Payden&Rygel) By:  Thomas Steffanci, PhD, Benefit Financial Services Group The past two weeks saw some eye-popping inflation readings. The consumer price index (CPI) for April came in at 4.2% year-over-year (YoY), but a surprisingly large 0.8% month-over-month (MoM) gain. The producer price index...

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The Fed’s Switcheroo

The U-6 Unemployment Rate Bottoms Have Been "Stuck" Around 7 - 7 1/2% Around Cyclical Turning Points It is readily apparent that the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) is more focused on employment rather than inflation. Last year the Fed released a new policy framework (1) that included a shift away from its traditional practice of raising interest rates based on the headline unemployment rate (U-3)....

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