#economicupdate

The S&P 500 index experienced its worst August in seven years as traders weighed the prospect of more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) on interest rates to rein in inflation — even if that means some pain for households and businesses. 

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The unemployment rate in August backed up to 3.7% (from 3.5%) driven by a huge increase in the labor force, itself reflecting an increase in prime-age participation and participation among workers ages 16-24.
2. Fed chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear message in his Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 26 that the central bank would keep battling high inflation until the job was done.
3. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rose back above 3% (3.15% as of Aug. 31) as persistent inflationary pressures have pushed the Fed to accelerate its rate hike trajectory.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.

The first half of the year was difficult for investors as the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) began an aggressive tightening cycle to fight inflation sitting at 40-year highs and risk-off sentiment pervaded.

Here are 3 things you need to know:

1. The S&P 500 index dropped 20.6%, marking its worst first half of a year since 1970.
2. Bonds, as measured by the U.S. Aggregate Index, had their worst first half on record falling 10.4%.
3. Bitcoin fell nearly 60% in the first half but cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano fell between 67-82%.

Sources:

1. Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
2. Indices:
   • The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
   • The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries.  The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
   • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).

Disclosure: BFSG does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to BFSG’s website or blog or incorporated herein and takes no responsibility for any such content. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Company), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s). Please see important disclosure information here.