The resilience of the U.S. economy will likely be a continuing theme in the months to come, as will be the Fed’s timing (the Fed elected to hold interest rates steady at the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on January 31st). Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 recorded new highs and was up +1.59% in January. The Magnificent 7 accounted for 45% of the...
The excitement about potential cuts to interest rates continued in the markets and investors had much to cheer as the year closed out with the S&P 500 index approaching its all-time high (4797 level). Here are 3 things you need to know: Gains in the broader market were largely driven by the “Magnificent 7” (Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft). They accounted for...
The boogie man (i.e., the Federal Reserve) showed up early rather than waiting for Halloween and major stock and bond market indices were down for the month keeping the historical pattern typically seen during September intact. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 index closed the month down 4.87% - its worst month since December 2022 and the fourth year in a row that the index...
Most global assets were down on the month. The general weakness in the month came from a few different angles. Here are 3 things you need to know: 10-yr. U.S. Treasury yields hit their highest level (4.36%) since 2007 driven partially by a larger-than-expected Treasury supply announcement. Fitch downgraded U.S. government debt from AAA to AA+. China's property crisis is rippling through its...
Risk assets continued to rally, benefiting from increased confidence of a ‘soft landing’, decent corporate earnings, and bullish investor sentiment. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 gained 19.5% through July for its best performance since 1997 and the Nasdaq surged 37.1% for its best showing since 1975. Both indexes have posted gains for five consecutive months. In July, the...
Out of nowhere, equities entered a bull market on June 8th after exiting a 248-trading-day bear market (its longest since 1948). Here are 3 things you need to know: The Nasdaq Composite surged 32% through the end of June, its best first-half performance in 40 years, far outpacing the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which gained 4%, and the S&P 500, which rose 4.5%. Three-month U.S. Treasury...
The U.S. stock market climbed the proverbial wall of worry in May. The month started with fresh rounds of concern about U.S. regional banks (First Republic closed on May 1st), another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the middle of the month, and intense negotiations around the U.S. debt ceiling towards the end of the month. Here are 3 things you need to know: Technology stocks surged amidst...
Despite the banking-sector turmoil seen in March, the S&P 500 rose in March, helped by strong returns from growth stocks that were buoyed by falling bond yields. Here are 3 things you need to know: The Federal Reserve continued to hike interest rates by 25 bps in March bringing the Federal funds rate range to 4.75% to 5.00%. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted, the current bank stress will...
Overall, January continued the strong bounce back seen for most global assets since October even if the performance seen in the first half of the month wasn’t quite matched in the second half. It was still the best January in several years for many assets. Here are 3 things you need to know: Q4 2022 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in above expectations at 2.9%. The increase primarily...
2022 is not a year on which I shall look back with undiluted pleasure. In the words of one of my more sympathetic correspondents, it has turned out to be an 'Annus Horribilis'. May the New Year 2023 be more prosperous. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 index was off (-19.4%), the worst yearly decline since 2008.Long-term treasuries were down (-30%) as interest rates rose the...
The S&P 500 index experienced its worst August in seven years as traders weighed the prospect of more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve (the Fed) on interest rates to rein in inflation — even if that means some pain for households and businesses. Here are 3 things you need to know: The unemployment rate in August backed up to 3.7% (from 3.5%) driven by a huge increase in the...
The Fed Funds futures market is pricing in roughly 10 quarter-point rate hikes this year. The benchmark 10-year yield was up +56 basis points for April. 2022 so far has seen the worst total return start for the 10-year Treasury (or proxies) since 1788, just before George Washington’s presidency. It appears that much of this tightening cycle has already been priced into the bond market – even...
Stocks rebounded in March even as the Russia/Ukraine conflict continued to escalate. The key message from the Federal Reserve is that it is focused on fighting inflation and is prepared to hike short-term interest rates steadily and reduce its balance sheet until it reaches its goals. Q1 earnings season will kick off the week of April 11th and although Wall Street analysts have recently...
February was a month of two halves. Hawkish central banks, high inflation and a strong U.S. jobs report dominated the first half of the month. However, the Russia/Ukraine situation has taken over the narrative for the second half of the month and has carried over into March. Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of Ukraine. Here are 3 things you need to know: Real gross domestic product...
Global equities ended the year near record highs even as the current surge in COVID-19 cases surpassed peak levels last seen since the start of the pandemic. Here are 3 things you need to know: The S&P 500 finished up +27% for 2021 hitting 70 all-time highs and completing its best three-year stretch since 1999 - “Let’s Go Crazy”!Not everyone was “Partying Like It’s 1999”. The areas of...
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