Many equity markets saw their best month of the year (including the S&P 500), whilst commodities led the way. Here are 3 things you need to know:
- Real GDP growth slowed substantially in the 3rd quarter to a 2.0% annual rate, after 6.5% growth in the first half of the year. Recent data points to a pick-up of economic momentum for the 4th quarter.
- Core CPI inflation for September rose to 4.04%. Core inflation was boosted by rapid shelter inflation— which ran at the highest level since the housing bubble.
- Less growth, more inflation = ☹. Short-term rate markets are pulling forward expectations for when and how quickly major central banks will start to lift interest rates from zero.
Sources:
- Sources: J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Economic Update; Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov); Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov); Federal Open Market Committee (www.federalreserve.gov)
- Indices:
- The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index used as a proxy for the U.S. bond market. Total return quoted.
- The S&P 500 is designed to be a leading indicator of U.S. equities and is commonly used as a proxy for the U.S. stock market. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI ACWI ex-US Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 of 23 developed market countries (excluding the U.S.) and 27 emerging market countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S. Price return quoted.
- The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap segments in 26 emerging markets. Price return quoted (USD).
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